Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Auxerre win with a probability of 41.07%. A win for Pau had a probability of 31.79% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Auxerre win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.51%) and 0-2 (7.53%). The likeliest Pau win was 1-0 (9.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Auxerre would win this match.
