Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saint-Etienne win with a probability of 37.94%. A win for Bastia had a probability of 33.16% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Saint-Etienne win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.74%) and 0-2 (7.27%). The likeliest Bastia win was 1-0 (11.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.35%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.
0.83) 
-0.38) 
