Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saint-Etienne win with a probability of 46.21%. A draw had a probability of 27.2% and a win for Sochaux had a probability of 26.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Saint-Etienne win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.04%) and 2-1 (8.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.76%), while for a Sochaux win it was 0-1 (9.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood.
0.23) 
-0.02) 
