Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caen win with a probability of 35.95%. A win for Ajaccio had a probability of 35.55% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caen win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.61%) and 0-2 (6.69%). The likeliest Ajaccio win was 1-0 (11.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.
0.06) 
-0.05) 
