SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Cincinnati win with a probability of 51.71%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 26.1% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Cincinnati win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.57%) and 2-0 (7.28%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 1-2 (6.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Cincinnati would win this match.
| Result | ||
| FC Cincinnati | Draw | New York City FC |
51.71% ( -0.51) | 22.19% ( 0.08) | 26.1% ( 0.43) |
| Both teams to score 62.39% ( 0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.74% ( -0.01) | 37.26% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.53% ( -0.01) | 59.47% ( 0.01) |
| FC Cincinnati Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.38% ( -0.17) | 14.62% ( 0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.27% ( -0.33) | 42.72% ( 0.33) |
| New York City FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.08% ( 0.31) | 26.92% ( -0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.75% ( 0.4) | 62.25% ( -0.4) |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Cincinnati | Draw | New York City FC |
| 2-1 @ 9.55% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 7.57% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 7.28% ( -0.09)3-1 @ 6.12% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 4.66% ( -0.08)3-2 @ 4.02% ( -0)4-1 @ 2.94% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 2.24% ( -0.05)4-2 @ 1.93% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.13% ( -0.02)Other @ 4.27% Total : 51.71% | 1-1 @ 9.93% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 6.26% ( 0.03)0-0 @ 3.94% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.76% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.31% Total : 22.19% | 1-2 @ 6.52% ( 0.07) 0-1 @ 5.16% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 3.39% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 2.85% ( 0.06)2-3 @ 2.74% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 1.48% ( 0.04)1-4 @ 0.94% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.02% Total : 26.1% |
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