Expansion teams have been able to develop quickly in this league, but it still takes time to have the continuity needed to be successful, and we expect the learning curve will be a steep one for Saint Louis early on.
Whether or not Austin have fixed its defensive issues remains unknown, but even so, this team know who they are and have numerous attacking weapons at their disposal.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austin FC win with a probability of 81.02%. A draw had a probability of 11.7% and a win for Saint Louis City had a probability of 7.24%.
The most likely scoreline for an Austin FC win was 3-0 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.21%) and 3-1 (8.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.16%), while for a Saint Louis City win it was 1-2 (2.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1% likelihood.
0.03) 
-0.02) 
