SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Toronto | 24 | -8 | 26 |
| 8 | Houston Dynamo | 24 | -10 | 25 |
| 9 | Sporting Kansas City | 25 | -17 | 23 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Philadelphia Union | 24 | 23 | 45 |
| 2 | CF Montreal | 24 | 3 | 40 |
| 3 | New York Red Bulls | 24 | 6 | 37 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Houston Dynamo win with a probability of 42.11%. A win for CF Montreal had a probability of 32.1% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Houston Dynamo win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.85%) and 2-0 (7.21%). The likeliest CF Montreal win was 0-1 (8.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Houston Dynamo | Draw | CF Montreal |
42.11% ( -0.01) | 25.79% ( -0.07) | 32.1% ( 0.08) |
| Both teams to score 54.05% ( 0.24) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.98% ( 0.3) | 50.01% ( -0.3) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28% ( 0.26) | 71.99% ( -0.26) |
| Houston Dynamo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.42% ( 0.12) | 23.57% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.36% ( 0.18) | 57.63% ( -0.18) |
| CF Montreal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.72% ( 0.2) | 29.27% ( -0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.76% ( 0.24) | 65.24% ( -0.24) |
| Score Analysis |
| Houston Dynamo | Draw | CF Montreal |
| 1-0 @ 9.97% ( -0.08) 2-1 @ 8.85% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 7.21% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 4.26% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 3.47% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.62% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 1.54% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.25% ( 0)4-2 @ 0.95% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.99% Total : 42.11% | 1-1 @ 12.25% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 6.9% ( -0.08)2-2 @ 5.44% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 1.07% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.79% | 0-1 @ 8.48% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 7.52% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 5.21% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 3.08% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 2.23% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 2.13% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 0.95% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.51% Total : 32.1% |
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