SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Los Angeles FC | 19 | 17 | 39 |
| 2 | Austin FC | 19 | 16 | 37 |
| 3 | Real Salt Lake | 19 | 0 | 30 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | New England Revolution | 19 | -1 | 25 |
| 6 | Houston Dynamo | 19 | -1 | 22 |
| 7 | Toronto | 19 | -10 | 19 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austin FC win with a probability of 58.44%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Houston Dynamo had a probability of 20.14%.
The most likely scoreline for an Austin FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.17%) and 2-0 (9.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.95%), while for a Houston Dynamo win it was 1-2 (5.4%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Austin FC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Austin FC | Draw | Houston Dynamo |
58.44% ( 1.34) | 21.42% ( -0.49) | 20.14% ( -0.85) |
| Both teams to score 57.19% ( 0.32) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.43% ( 1.06) | 40.57% ( -1.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.05% ( 1.08) | 62.95% ( -1.08) |
| Austin FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.38% ( 0.77) | 13.61% ( -0.77) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.24% ( 1.51) | 40.76% ( -1.51) |
| Houston Dynamo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.2% ( -0.22) | 33.79% ( 0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.54% ( -0.24) | 70.45% ( 0.24) |
| Score Analysis |
| Austin FC | Draw | Houston Dynamo |
| 2-1 @ 9.92% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 9.17% ( -0.19)2-0 @ 9.15% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 6.6% ( 0.19)3-0 @ 6.08% ( 0.21)3-2 @ 3.58% ( 0.08)4-1 @ 3.29% ( 0.18)4-0 @ 3.03% ( 0.19)4-2 @ 1.78% ( 0.09)5-1 @ 1.31% ( 0.11)5-0 @ 1.21% ( 0.11)Other @ 3.32% Total : 58.44% | 1-1 @ 9.95% ( -0.26) 2-2 @ 5.38% ( -0.03)0-0 @ 4.6% ( -0.23)3-3 @ 1.29% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.19% Total : 21.42% | 1-2 @ 5.4% ( -0.18) 0-1 @ 4.99% ( -0.28)0-2 @ 2.71% ( -0.17)1-3 @ 1.95% ( -0.08)2-3 @ 1.95% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 0.98% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.16% Total : 20.14% |
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