Major League Soccer

Jul 13, 2022 at 2am UK

Austin FC Stadium

Austin
3 - 1
Houston

Fagundez (15'), Urruti (57'), Ring (70')
Lima (66')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Carrasquilla (11')
Hadebe (14'), Lundqvist (62'), Herrera (80')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Major League Soccer clash between Austin FC and Houston Dynamo, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: Austin FC 2-1 Houston Dynamo

Austin have a 100% record at home against the Dynamo, and although that is only in two games, the way Austin are playing at the moment, it is hard to imagine that the presence of Hector Herrera alone will be enough to slow down the Verde and Black, who have scored 19 goals in eight home matches this season. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austin FC win with a probability of 58.44%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Houston Dynamo had a probability of 20.14%.

The most likely scoreline for an Austin FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.17%) and 2-0 (9.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.95%), while for a Houston Dynamo win it was 1-2 (5.4%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Austin FC would win this match.

Result
Austin FC	Draw	Houston Dynamo
58.44% ( 1.34)	21.42% ( -0.49)	20.14% ( -0.85)

Both teams to score 57.19% (

0.32)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.43% (

1.06)

40.57% (

-1.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.05% (

1.08)

62.95% (

-1.08)

Austin FC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.38% (

0.77)

13.61% (

-0.77)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

59.24% (

1.51)

40.76% (

-1.51)

Houston Dynamo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.2% (

-0.22)

33.79% (

0.22)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.54% (

-0.24)

70.45% (

0.24)

Score Analysis

Austin FC 58.44%

Houston Dynamo 20.14%

Draw 21.42%

Austin FC	Draw	Houston Dynamo
2-1 @ 9.92% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 9.17% ( -0.19) 2-0 @ 9.15% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 6.6% ( 0.19) 3-0 @ 6.08% ( 0.21) 3-2 @ 3.58% ( 0.08) 4-1 @ 3.29% ( 0.18) 4-0 @ 3.03% ( 0.19) 4-2 @ 1.78% ( 0.09) 5-1 @ 1.31% ( 0.11) 5-0 @ 1.21% ( 0.11) Other @ 3.32% Total : 58.44%	1-1 @ 9.95% ( -0.26) 2-2 @ 5.38% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 4.6% ( -0.23) 3-3 @ 1.29% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.19% Total : 21.42%	1-2 @ 5.4% ( -0.18) 0-1 @ 4.99% ( -0.28) 0-2 @ 2.71% ( -0.17) 1-3 @ 1.95% ( -0.08) 2-3 @ 1.95% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 0.98% ( -0.07) Other @ 2.16% Total : 20.14%