SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | New York Red Bulls | 20 | 7 | 33 |
| 3 | CF Montreal | 19 | 0 | 29 |
| 4 | Columbus Crew | 19 | 3 | 26 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Sporting Kansas City | 21 | -12 | 20 |
| 9 | Toronto | 20 | -12 | 19 |
| 10 | DC United | 18 | -15 | 18 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CF Montreal win with a probability of 62.2%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Toronto had a probability of 17.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a CF Montreal win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.94%) and 1-0 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.58%), while for a Toronto win it was 1-2 (4.78%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that CF Montreal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| CF Montreal | Draw | Toronto |
62.2% ( 2.91) | 20.46% ( -0.7) | 17.33% ( -2.21) |
| Both teams to score 55.24% ( -1.83) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.34% ( -0.41) | 40.65% ( 0.41) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.96% ( -0.42) | 63.04% ( 0.42) |
| CF Montreal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.46% ( 0.72) | 12.53% ( -0.72) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.44% ( 1.47) | 38.56% ( -1.47) |
| Toronto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.15% ( -2.64) | 36.85% ( 2.64) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.37% ( -2.73) | 73.63% ( 2.73) |
| Score Analysis |
| CF Montreal | Draw | Toronto |
| 2-0 @ 9.96% ( 0.7) 2-1 @ 9.94% ( 0.01)1-0 @ 9.59% ( 0.43)3-0 @ 6.89% ( 0.66)3-1 @ 6.88% ( 0.19)4-0 @ 3.58% ( 0.43)4-1 @ 3.57% ( 0.19)3-2 @ 3.44% ( -0.15)4-2 @ 1.78% ( -0.03)5-0 @ 1.49% ( 0.21)5-1 @ 1.48% ( 0.12)Other @ 3.59% Total : 62.2% | 1-1 @ 9.58% ( -0.25) 2-2 @ 4.96% ( -0.36)0-0 @ 4.62% ( 0.09)3-3 @ 1.14% ( -0.14)Other @ 0.16% Total : 20.46% | 1-2 @ 4.78% ( -0.49) 0-1 @ 4.61% ( -0.25)0-2 @ 2.3% ( -0.31)2-3 @ 1.65% ( -0.25)1-3 @ 1.59% ( -0.29)Other @ 2.39% Total : 17.33% |
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