With both teams level on 43 points, we expect Wednesday's clash to produce a closely-fought contest, but we think that LAFC could use home advantage to claim a narrow victory, especially as they have won nine of their 12 home MLS matches this season.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Los Angeles FC win with a probability of 65.34%. A draw had a probability of 18.1% and a win for Real Salt Lake had a probability of 16.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Los Angeles FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.25%) and 3-1 (7.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.84%), while for a Real Salt Lake win it was 1-2 (4.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.
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