SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Philadelphia Union | 26 | 25 | 48 |
| 2 | CF Montreal | 25 | 4 | 43 |
| 3 | New York Red Bulls | 26 | 6 | 40 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Columbus Crew | 24 | 5 | 34 |
| 5 | New England Revolution | 25 | 2 | 34 |
| 6 | Toronto | 26 | -6 | 30 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CF Montreal win with a probability of 55.41%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for New England Revolution had a probability of 21.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a CF Montreal win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.8%) and 2-0 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.63%), while for a New England Revolution win it was 1-2 (5.77%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that CF Montreal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| CF Montreal | Draw | New England Revolution |
55.41% ( 2.02) | 22.63% ( -0.41) | 21.96% ( -1.6) |
| Both teams to score 55.86% ( -0.72) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.35% ( 0.03) | 43.65% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.96% ( 0.03) | 66.04% ( -0.03) |
| CF Montreal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.38% ( 0.7) | 15.62% ( -0.7) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.38% ( 1.3) | 44.62% ( -1.3) |
| New England Revolution Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.2% ( -1.42) | 33.8% ( 1.42) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.54% ( -1.57) | 70.46% ( 1.57) |
| Score Analysis |
| CF Montreal | Draw | New England Revolution |
| 2-1 @ 9.87% ( 0.08) 1-0 @ 9.8% ( 0.22)2-0 @ 9.1% ( 0.42)3-1 @ 6.11% ( 0.19)3-0 @ 5.63% ( 0.39)3-2 @ 3.31% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 2.84% ( 0.16)4-0 @ 2.61% ( 0.24)4-2 @ 1.54% ( 0.03)5-1 @ 1.05% ( 0.08)5-0 @ 0.97% ( 0.11)Other @ 2.58% Total : 55.41% | 1-1 @ 10.63% ( -0.17) 2-2 @ 5.35% ( -0.17)0-0 @ 5.28% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.2% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.16% Total : 22.63% | 1-2 @ 5.77% ( -0.32) 0-1 @ 5.73% ( -0.23)0-2 @ 3.11% ( -0.26)1-3 @ 2.09% ( -0.21)2-3 @ 1.94% ( -0.14)0-3 @ 1.12% ( -0.14)Other @ 2.21% Total : 21.96% |
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