SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Philadelphia Union | 14 | 9 | 25 |
| 2 | New York Red Bulls | 14 | 7 | 23 |
| 3 | CF Montreal | 14 | 4 | 23 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | New York Red Bulls | 14 | 7 | 23 |
| 3 | CF Montreal | 14 | 4 | 23 |
| 4 | Houston Dynamo | 14 | 0 | 18 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 50.84%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for CF Montreal had a probability of 23.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.73%) and 2-1 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.12%), while for a CF Montreal win it was 0-1 (7.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for CF Montreal in this match.
| Result | ||
| New York Red Bulls | Draw | CF Montreal |
| 50.84% | 25.62% | 23.54% |
| Both teams to score 48.52% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.68% | 54.31% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.3% | 75.7% |
| New York Red Bulls Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.6% | 21.39% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 45.61% | 54.38% |
| CF Montreal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.73% | 38.26% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 24.97% | 75.02% |
| Score Analysis |
| New York Red Bulls | Draw | CF Montreal |
| 1-0 @ 12.62% 2-0 @ 9.73% 2-1 @ 9.35% 3-0 @ 5% 3-1 @ 4.81% 3-2 @ 2.31% 4-0 @ 1.93% 4-1 @ 1.85% Other @ 3.23% Total : 50.83% | 1-1 @ 12.12% 0-0 @ 8.19% 2-2 @ 4.49% Other @ 0.81% Total : 25.61% | 0-1 @ 7.86% 1-2 @ 5.83% 0-2 @ 3.78% 1-3 @ 1.87% 2-3 @ 1.44% 0-3 @ 1.21% Other @ 1.56% Total : 23.54% |
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