SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | DC United | 13 | -7 | 14 |
| 9 | Sporting Kansas City | 16 | -10 | 13 |
| 10 | Chicago Fire | 14 | -7 | 11 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Toronto | 14 | -6 | 15 |
| 8 | DC United | 13 | -7 | 14 |
| 9 | Sporting Kansas City | 16 | -10 | 13 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chicago Fire win with a probability of 53.27%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for DC United had a probability of 22.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chicago Fire win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.69%) and 2-1 (9.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.53%), while for a DC United win it was 0-1 (6.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Chicago Fire in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Chicago Fire.
| Result | ||
| Chicago Fire | Draw | DC United |
53.27% ( -0.18) | 24.26% ( 0.02) | 22.47% ( 0.16) |
| Both teams to score 51.3% ( 0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.97% ( 0.07) | 50.03% ( -0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.99% ( 0.07) | 72% ( -0.07) |
| Chicago Fire Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.28% ( -0.04) | 18.72% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.91% ( -0.07) | 50.09% ( 0.07) |
| DC United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.11% ( 0.19) | 36.88% ( -0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.33% ( 0.19) | 73.67% ( -0.18) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chicago Fire | Draw | DC United |
| 1-0 @ 11.56% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 9.69% ( -0.05)2-1 @ 9.67% ( -0)3-0 @ 5.41% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 5.4% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.69% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.27% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 2.26% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.13% ( 0)Other @ 3.18% Total : 53.26% | 1-1 @ 11.53% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.91% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 4.82% ( 0.02)Other @ 1% Total : 24.25% | 0-1 @ 6.89% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 5.76% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 3.43% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 1.91% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.6% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 1.14% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.74% Total : 22.47% |
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