Mistakes have plagued both of these teams so far this season, but Toronto have shown a lot more fight than Chicago over their slump, while they seem to have more chemistry than the Fire, which we believe will be enough to earn them their first victory since April. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 46.48%. A win for Chicago Fire had a probability of 28.52% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.3%) and 2-0 (7.92%). The likeliest Chicago Fire win was 0-1 (7.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.85%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Toronto would win this match.

Result
Toronto	Draw	Chicago Fire
46.48% ( -0.11)	25% ( 0)	28.52% ( 0.11)

Both teams to score 54.73% (

0.08)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.73% (

0.07)

48.27% (

-0.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.58% (

0.06)

70.42% (

-0.06)

Toronto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.19% (

-0.02)

20.81% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.53% (

-0.03)

53.47% (

0.03)

Chicago Fire Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.12% (

0.11)

30.88% (

-0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.83% (

0.14)

67.17% (

-0.13)

Score Analysis

Toronto 46.47%

Chicago Fire 28.52%

Draw 25%

Toronto	Draw	Chicago Fire
1-0 @ 10.08% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 9.3% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 7.92% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 4.87% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 4.14% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.86% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.91% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.63% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.12% ( 0) Other @ 2.63% Total : 46.47%	1-1 @ 11.85% 0-0 @ 6.43% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.47% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.12% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.14% Total : 25%	0-1 @ 7.55% ( 0) 1-2 @ 6.96% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 4.44% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 2.73% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 2.14% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.74% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.97% Total : 28.52%