SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Philadelphia Union | 23 | 25 | 45 |
| 2 | New York Red Bulls | 22 | 7 | 36 |
| 3 | CF Montreal | 22 | 2 | 36 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 23 | -6 | 27 |
| 7 | Colorado Rapids | 21 | -1 | 24 |
| 8 | San Jose Earthquakes | 22 | -8 | 23 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 45.8%. A win for Colorado Rapids had a probability of 27.56% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.97%) and 2-0 (8.62%). The likeliest Colorado Rapids win was 0-1 (8.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.61%). The actual scoreline of 4-5 was predicted with a 0% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| New York Red Bulls | Draw | Colorado Rapids |
45.8% ( -5.3) | 26.64% ( 0.63) | 27.56% ( 4.67) |
| Both teams to score 49.05% ( 2.33) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.63% ( 0.95) | 55.37% ( -0.95) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.42% ( 0.77) | 76.57% ( -0.77) |
| New York Red Bulls Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.88% ( -2.01) | 24.12% ( 2.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 41.57% ( -2.94) | 58.42% ( 2.94) |
| Colorado Rapids Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.64% ( 4.65) | 35.36% ( -4.65) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 27.88% ( 4.54) | 72.12% ( -4.54) |
| Score Analysis |
| New York Red Bulls | Draw | Colorado Rapids |
| 1-0 @ 12.12% ( -1.23) 2-1 @ 8.97% ( -0.26)2-0 @ 8.62% ( -1.45)3-1 @ 4.25% ( -0.39)3-0 @ 4.09% ( -0.98)3-2 @ 2.21% ( 0.08)4-1 @ 1.51% ( -0.24)4-0 @ 1.45% ( -0.46)Other @ 2.57% Total : 45.79% | 1-1 @ 12.61% ( 0.38) 0-0 @ 8.53% ( -0.32)2-2 @ 4.66% ( 0.43)Other @ 0.84% Total : 26.64% | 0-1 @ 8.87% ( 0.76) 1-2 @ 6.56% ( 0.95)0-2 @ 4.61% ( 0.9)1-3 @ 2.27% ( 0.56)2-3 @ 1.62% ( 0.33)0-3 @ 1.6% ( 0.46)Other @ 2.05% Total : 27.56% |
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