These are two evenly matched teams on paper, having both allowed the same amount of goals, though Red Bull Arena is the deciding factor in this one, as the home side have settled into quite the groove there, and when that home crowd is on you, it can be highly challenging to compete against them and that high press. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 42.3%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 30.82% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.68%) and 2-0 (7.75%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 0-1 (9.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.

Result
New York Red Bulls	Draw	New York City FC
42.3% ( 0.56)	26.88% ( 0.13)	30.82% ( -0.69)

Both teams to score 50.1% (

-0.66)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.13% (

-0.71)

54.87% (

0.71)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.84% (

-0.59)

76.16% (

0.59)

New York Red Bulls Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.35% (

-0.03)

25.65% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.46% (

-0.05)

60.54% (

0.05)

New York City FC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.38% (

-0.85)

32.62% (

0.85)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.84% (

-0.97)

69.16% (

0.97)

Score Analysis

New York Red Bulls 42.29%

New York City FC 30.82%

Draw 26.88%

New York Red Bulls	Draw	New York City FC
1-0 @ 11.38% ( 0.3) 2-1 @ 8.68% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 7.75% ( 0.2) 3-1 @ 3.94% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 3.51% ( 0.09) 3-2 @ 2.21% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 1.34% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.2% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.3% Total : 42.29%	1-1 @ 12.75% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 8.37% ( 0.23) 2-2 @ 4.86% ( -0.1) Other @ 0.91% Total : 26.88%	0-1 @ 9.37% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 7.14% ( -0.14) 0-2 @ 5.25% ( -0.1) 1-3 @ 2.67% ( -0.12) 0-3 @ 1.96% ( -0.09) 2-3 @ 1.82% ( -0.08) Other @ 2.62% Total : 30.82%