SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Los Angeles FC | 21 | 20 | 45 |
| 2 | Austin FC | 21 | 18 | 41 |
| 3 | Minnesota United | 22 | 5 | 34 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | CF Montreal | 21 | 2 | 35 |
| 3 | New York Red Bulls | 21 | 6 | 33 |
| 4 | Columbus Crew | 21 | 5 | 30 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austin FC win with a probability of 43.56%. A win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 31.08% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Austin FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (7.34%). The likeliest New York Red Bulls win was 0-1 (7.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.01%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Austin FC | Draw | New York Red Bulls |
43.56% ( 2) | 25.35% ( -0.22) | 31.08% ( -1.78) |
| Both teams to score 55.05% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.48% ( 0.34) | 48.52% ( -0.34) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.35% ( 0.31) | 70.65% ( -0.31) |
| Austin FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.77% ( 1.11) | 22.23% ( -1.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.34% ( 1.65) | 55.66% ( -1.64) |
| New York Red Bulls Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.79% ( -1) | 29.21% ( 1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.84% ( -1.24) | 65.16% ( 1.25) |
| Score Analysis |
| Austin FC | Draw | New York Red Bulls |
| 1-0 @ 9.76% ( 0.18) 2-1 @ 9.04% ( 0.22)2-0 @ 7.34% ( 0.37)3-1 @ 4.53% ( 0.25)3-0 @ 3.68% ( 0.3)3-2 @ 2.79% ( 0.08)4-1 @ 1.7% ( 0.15)4-0 @ 1.38% ( 0.15)4-2 @ 1.05% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.29% Total : 43.56% | 1-1 @ 12.01% ( -0.11) 0-0 @ 6.49% ( -0.09)2-2 @ 5.56% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.14% ( 0)Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.35% | 0-1 @ 7.99% ( -0.34) 1-2 @ 7.39% ( -0.28)0-2 @ 4.92% ( -0.36)1-3 @ 3.03% ( -0.2)2-3 @ 2.28% ( -0.07)0-3 @ 2.02% ( -0.21)1-4 @ 0.93% ( -0.09)Other @ 2.52% Total : 31.08% |
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