In four previous visits to Red Bull Arena in MLS play, the Five Stripes have never found the back of the net, and even though they should have the ball for long stretches of this encounter, we do not see them finding a way through a backline, who have looked a lot stingier at home in recent games.
Combine that with the fact that the Red Bulls have scored three goals or more in four of their last five home contests, and you see why it might be difficult for Atlanta to contain a revitalized New York team in their own backyard.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 48.85%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Atlanta United had a probability of 25.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.33%) and 2-1 (9.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.35%), while for an Atlanta United win it was 0-1 (8.29%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York Red Bulls would win this match.
-0.76) 
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