SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Philadelphia Union | 14 | 9 | 25 |
| 2 | New York Red Bulls | 14 | 7 | 23 |
| 3 | CF Montreal | 14 | 4 | 23 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Colorado Rapids | 14 | 2 | 18 |
| 5 | Minnesota United | 14 | 0 | 18 |
| 6 | Houston Dynamo | 14 | -2 | 18 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 44.85%. A win for Minnesota United had a probability of 28.01% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.79%) and 2-0 (8.57%). The likeliest Minnesota United win was 0-1 (9.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.78%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| New York Red Bulls | Draw | Minnesota United |
| 44.85% | 27.14% | 28.01% |
| Both teams to score 47.9% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.01% | 56.99% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.12% | 77.88% |
| New York Red Bulls Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.7% | 25.3% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 39.92% | 60.07% |
| Minnesota United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.13% | 35.87% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 27.35% | 72.65% |
| Score Analysis |
| New York Red Bulls | Draw | Minnesota United |
| 1-0 @ 12.47% 2-1 @ 8.79% 2-0 @ 8.57% 3-1 @ 4.03% 3-0 @ 3.93% 3-2 @ 2.06% 4-1 @ 1.38% 4-0 @ 1.35% Other @ 2.27% Total : 44.85% | 1-1 @ 12.78% 0-0 @ 9.08% 2-2 @ 4.5% Other @ 0.77% Total : 27.13% | 0-1 @ 9.31% 1-2 @ 6.56% 0-2 @ 4.77% 1-3 @ 2.24% 0-3 @ 1.63% 2-3 @ 1.54% Other @ 1.97% Total : 28.01% |
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