SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Chicago Fire | 24 | -3 | 30 |
| 7 | Toronto | 24 | -8 | 26 |
| 8 | Houston Dynamo | 24 | -10 | 25 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Real Salt Lake | 24 | -2 | 34 |
| 3 | Portland Timbers | 25 | 4 | 33 |
| 4 | Seattle Sounders | 24 | 2 | 32 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 47.21%. A win for Portland Timbers had a probability of 29.66% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.64%) and 2-0 (6.79%). The likeliest Portland Timbers win was 1-2 (7.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.45%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toronto would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Toronto | Draw | Portland Timbers |
47.21% ( 0.4) | 23.13% ( -0.1) | 29.66% ( -0.31) |
| Both teams to score 61.98% ( 0.15) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.92% ( 0.27) | 39.08% ( -0.28) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.59% ( 0.29) | 61.4% ( -0.29) |
| Toronto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.12% ( 0.26) | 16.88% ( -0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.09% ( 0.46) | 46.9% ( -0.46) |
| Portland Timbers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.57% ( -0.06) | 25.43% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.74% ( -0.08) | 60.25% ( 0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Toronto | Draw | Portland Timbers |
| 2-1 @ 9.3% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 7.64% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 6.79% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 5.52% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 4.03% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 3.78% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 2.45% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 1.79% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 1.68% ( 0.03)Other @ 4.23% Total : 47.21% | 1-1 @ 10.45% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 6.37% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 4.29% ( -0.06)3-3 @ 1.72% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.29% Total : 23.12% | 1-2 @ 7.16% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 5.88% ( -0.09)0-2 @ 4.02% ( -0.07)1-3 @ 3.27% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.91% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.84% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 1.12% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1% ( -0)Other @ 2.48% Total : 29.66% |
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