Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alfreton Town win with a probability of 48.96%. A win for Boston United had a probability of 26.1% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alfreton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.46%) and 2-0 (8.64%). The likeliest Boston United win was 0-1 (7.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.85%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Alfreton Town would win this match.
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