SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alfreton Town win with a probability of 44.37%. A win for Buxton had a probability of 30.8% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alfreton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.15%) and 2-0 (7.24%). The likeliest Buxton win was 0-1 (7.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.68%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Alfreton Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Alfreton Town | Draw | Buxton |
44.37% ( 0.02) | 24.82% ( 0.01) | 30.8% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 56.72% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.71% ( -0.04) | 46.28% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.42% ( -0.04) | 68.57% ( 0.03) |
| Alfreton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.08% ( -0.01) | 20.91% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.36% ( -0.01) | 53.64% ( 0.01) |
| Buxton Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.72% ( -0.04) | 28.28% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36% ( -0.05) | 64% ( 0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Alfreton Town | Draw | Buxton |
| 1-0 @ 9.25% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.15% ( 0)2-0 @ 7.24% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 4.77% 3-0 @ 3.78% ( 0)3-2 @ 3.01% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.87% 4-0 @ 1.48% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.18% ( -0)Other @ 2.66% Total : 44.38% | 1-1 @ 11.68% 0-0 @ 5.91% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 5.78% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.27% ( -0)Other @ 0.17% Total : 24.81% | 0-1 @ 7.47% ( 0) 1-2 @ 7.38% ( -0)0-2 @ 4.72% ( -0)1-3 @ 3.11% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.43% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.99% ( -0)1-4 @ 0.98% ( -0)Other @ 2.73% Total : 30.8% |
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