SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chorley win with a probability of 63.77%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Alfreton Town had a probability of 14.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chorley win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.06%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.09%), while for an Alfreton Town win it was 0-1 (5.24%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Chorley | Draw | Alfreton Town |
63.77% ( -0.09) | 21.26% ( 0.05) | 14.97% ( 0.05) |
| Both teams to score 47.32% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.49% ( -0.11) | 48.51% ( 0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.36% ( -0.1) | 70.64% ( 0.1) |
| Chorley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.46% ( -0.06) | 14.54% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.42% ( -0.13) | 42.58% ( 0.13) |
| Alfreton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.37% ( 0) | 44.63% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.36% ( 0) | 80.63% |
| Score Analysis |
| Chorley | Draw | Alfreton Town |
| 1-0 @ 12.51% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 12.06% 2-1 @ 9.73% ( -0)3-0 @ 7.75% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 6.26% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 3.74% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 3.02% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.52% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 1.44% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.22% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.16% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.36% Total : 63.76% | 1-1 @ 10.09% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.49% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 3.93% ( -0)Other @ 0.75% Total : 21.26% | 0-1 @ 5.24% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 4.07% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 2.11% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.1% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.06% Other @ 1.39% Total : 14.97% |
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