SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chorley win with a probability of 54%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Alfreton Town had a probability of 21.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chorley win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.83%) and 2-1 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.44%), while for an Alfreton Town win it was 0-1 (6.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chorley would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Chorley | Draw | Alfreton Town |
54% ( -0.05) | 24.06% ( 0.02) | 21.94% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 51.24% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.23% ( -0.06) | 49.77% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.22% ( -0.06) | 71.77% ( 0.06) |
| Chorley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.65% ( -0.04) | 18.34% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 50.54% ( -0.07) | 49.45% ( 0.07) |
| Alfreton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.75% ( -0.01) | 37.25% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 25.96% ( -0.01) | 74.03% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chorley | Draw | Alfreton Town |
| 1-0 @ 11.58% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 9.83% ( -0)2-1 @ 9.7% ( -0)3-0 @ 5.55% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 5.49% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.71% ( -0)4-0 @ 2.36% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2.33% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.15% ( -0)Other @ 3.31% Total : 53.99% | 1-1 @ 11.44% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.83% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 4.79% ( -0)Other @ 0.99% Total : 24.06% | 0-1 @ 6.75% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 5.65% ( 0)0-2 @ 3.33% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.86% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.58% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.1% ( 0)Other @ 1.68% Total : 21.94% |
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