Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chorley win with a probability of 41.66%. A win for Alfreton Town had a probability of 31.27% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chorley win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.58%) and 2-0 (7.65%). The likeliest Alfreton Town win was 0-1 (9.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.82%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chorley would win this match.

Result
Chorley	Draw	Alfreton Town
41.66% ( 0.36)	27.07% ( 0.04)	31.27% ( -0.39)

Both teams to score 49.72% (

-0.25)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.57% (

-0.25)

55.43% (

0.25)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.37% (

-0.2)

76.63% (

0.2)

Chorley Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.76% (

0.08)

26.24% (

-0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.65% (

0.1)

61.35% (

-0.1)

Alfreton Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.41% (

-0.4)

32.59% (

0.41)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.87% (

-0.45)

69.13% (

0.46)

Score Analysis

Chorley 41.66%

Alfreton Town 31.27%

Draw 27.06%

Chorley	Draw	Alfreton Town
1-0 @ 11.44% ( 0.14) 2-1 @ 8.58% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 7.65% ( 0.11) 3-1 @ 3.83% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 3.41% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 2.15% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.28% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.14% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.17% Total : 41.66%	1-1 @ 12.82% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.55% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 4.81% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.88% Total : 27.06%	0-1 @ 9.59% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 7.19% ( -0.08) 0-2 @ 5.37% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 2.69% ( -0.06) 0-3 @ 2.01% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 1.8% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.63% Total : 31.27%