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National League North | Gameweek 12
Jan 30, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
The Chorley Group Victory Park Stadium
AT

Chorley
3 - 2
Alfreton

Smith (34'), Hazlehurst (44'), Ubaezuonu (77')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Blakeman (18' og.), Perritt (48')
Coverage of the National League North clash between Chorley and Alfreton Town.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Chorley 1-1 Farsley Celtic
Saturday, January 27 at 3pm in National League North
Last Game: Southport 2-3 Alfreton
Saturday, January 27 at 3pm in National League North

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chorley win with a probability of 41.66%. A win for Alfreton Town had a probability of 31.27% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chorley win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.58%) and 2-0 (7.65%). The likeliest Alfreton Town win was 0-1 (9.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.82%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chorley would win this match.

Result
ChorleyDrawAlfreton Town
41.66% (0.358 0.36) 27.07% (0.035 0.04) 31.27% (-0.39 -0.39)
Both teams to score 49.72% (-0.245 -0.25)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.57% (-0.246 -0.25)55.43% (0.249 0.25)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.37% (-0.202 -0.2)76.63% (0.205 0.2)
Chorley Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.76% (0.076999999999998 0.08)26.24% (-0.074999999999999 -0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.65% (0.1 0.1)61.35% (-0.097999999999999 -0.1)
Alfreton Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.41% (-0.402 -0.4)32.59% (0.405 0.41)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.87% (-0.455 -0.45)69.13% (0.458 0.46)
Score Analysis
    Chorley 41.66%
    Alfreton Town 31.27%
    Draw 27.06%
ChorleyDrawAlfreton Town
1-0 @ 11.44% (0.14 0.14)
2-1 @ 8.58% (0.023999999999999 0.02)
2-0 @ 7.65% (0.106 0.11)
3-1 @ 3.83% (0.019 0.02)
3-0 @ 3.41% (0.054 0.05)
3-2 @ 2.15% (-0.013 -0.01)
4-1 @ 1.28% (0.0090000000000001 0.01)
4-0 @ 1.14% (0.021 0.02)
Other @ 2.17%
Total : 41.66%
1-1 @ 12.82% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 8.55% (0.082000000000001 0.08)
2-2 @ 4.81% (-0.04 -0.04)
Other @ 0.88%
Total : 27.06%
0-1 @ 9.59% (-0.014000000000001 -0.01)
1-2 @ 7.19% (-0.075 -0.08)
0-2 @ 5.37% (-0.068000000000001 -0.07)
1-3 @ 2.69% (-0.059 -0.06)
0-3 @ 2.01% (-0.047 -0.05)
2-3 @ 1.8% (-0.035 -0.03)
Other @ 2.63%
Total : 31.27%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Chorley 1-1 Farsley Celtic
Saturday, January 27 at 3pm in National League North
Last Game: Chorley 0-2 Chester
Tuesday, January 23 at 7.45pm in National League North
Last Game: Alfreton 2-0 Chorley
Saturday, January 6 at 3pm in National League North
Last Game: Spennymoor 0-2 Chorley
Tuesday, December 26 at 3pm in National League North
Last Game: Chorley 4-0 Curzon Ashton
Saturday, December 23 at 3pm in National League North
Last Game: Banbury 1-4 Chorley
Tuesday, December 19 at 7.45pm in National League North
Last Game: Southport 2-3 Alfreton
Saturday, January 27 at 3pm in National League North
Last Game: P'boro Sports 1-1 Alfreton
Tuesday, January 23 at 7.45pm in National League North
Last Game: Warrington Town 2-2 Alfreton
Saturday, January 13 at 3pm in National League North
Last Game: Alfreton 2-0 Chorley
Saturday, January 6 at 3pm in National League North
Last Game: Buxton 1-2 Alfreton
Monday, January 1 at 3pm in National League North
Last Game: Alfreton 2-1 Buxton
Tuesday, December 26 at 3pm in National League North


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