SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelmsford City win with a probability of 50.18%. A win for Worthing had a probability of 26.11% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelmsford City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.39%) and 2-0 (8.12%). The likeliest Worthing win was 1-2 (6.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.11%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chelmsford City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Chelmsford City | Draw | Worthing |
50.18% ( 0.37) | 23.7% ( -0.09) | 26.11% ( -0.28) |
| Both teams to score 57.09% ( 0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.73% ( 0.2) | 44.27% ( -0.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.36% ( 0.19) | 66.64% ( -0.19) |
| Chelmsford City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.28% ( 0.22) | 17.72% ( -0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.61% ( 0.37) | 48.39% ( -0.37) |
| Worthing Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.39% ( -0.11) | 30.61% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.15% ( -0.13) | 66.84% ( 0.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chelmsford City | Draw | Worthing |
| 2-1 @ 9.61% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 9.39% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 8.12% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 5.55% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 4.68% ( 0.06)3-2 @ 3.28% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 2.4% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 2.03% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 1.42% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.7% Total : 50.18% | 1-1 @ 11.11% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 5.69% ( -0)0-0 @ 5.42% ( -0.05)3-3 @ 1.3% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.18% Total : 23.7% | 1-2 @ 6.58% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 6.42% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 3.8% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 2.6% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.25% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.5% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.97% Total : 26.11% |
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