Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hartlepool United win with a probability of 45.58%. A win for York City had a probability of 29.59% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hartlepool United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.25%) and 2-0 (7.56%). The likeliest York City win was 0-1 (7.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hartlepool United would win this match.
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