Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southend United win with a probability of 43.02%. A win for Chesterfield had a probability of 30.43% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southend United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.81%) and 2-0 (7.79%). The likeliest Chesterfield win was 0-1 (9.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.
-1.95) 
0.46) 
