Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 50.34%. A win for Southend United had a probability of 24.98% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.55%) and 2-0 (8.92%). The likeliest Southend United win was 0-1 (7.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.73%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chesterfield would win this match.
-0.02) 
0.03) 
