Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 46.48%. A win for Southend United had a probability of 27.55% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.16%) and 2-0 (8.48%). The likeliest Southend United win was 0-1 (8.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.
