Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Notts County win with a probability of 55.82%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for York City had a probability of 20.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Notts County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.84%) and 0-2 (9.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.01%), while for a York City win it was 1-0 (6.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Notts County would win this match.
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