Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Notts County win with a probability of 49.05%. A win for Chesterfield had a probability of 25.93% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Notts County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.45%) and 2-0 (8.72%). The likeliest Chesterfield win was 0-1 (7.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.89%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.
-0.2) 
0.14) 
