SM
| Current League C3 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Kazakhstan | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Belarus | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Azerbaijan | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Slovakia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current League C3 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Kazakhstan | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Belarus | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Azerbaijan | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Slovakia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kazakhstan win with a probability of 41.56%. A win for Azerbaijan had a probability of 35.81% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kazakhstan win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.94%) and 2-0 (5.24%). The likeliest Azerbaijan win was 1-2 (7.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Kazakhstan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Kazakhstan | Draw | Azerbaijan |
41.56% ( 0.09) | 22.62% ( -0.01) | 35.81% ( -0.08) |
| Both teams to score 66.59% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.87% ( 0.03) | 34.13% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.98% ( 0.03) | 56.01% ( -0.03) |
| Kazakhstan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.88% ( 0.05) | 17.12% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.67% ( 0.08) | 47.33% ( -0.08) |
| Azerbaijan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.34% ( -0.03) | 19.66% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.36% ( -0.05) | 51.63% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Kazakhstan | Draw | Azerbaijan |
| 2-1 @ 8.53% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 5.94% ( 0)2-0 @ 5.24% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 5.02% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 4.08% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.08% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.21% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.8% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.36% ( 0.01)4-3 @ 0.98% ( 0)Other @ 3.32% Total : 41.56% | 1-1 @ 9.66% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.94% 0-0 @ 3.37% ( -0)3-3 @ 2.21% ( 0)Other @ 0.45% Total : 22.62% | 1-2 @ 7.86% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 5.47% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 4.45% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 4.26% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3.76% ( -0)0-3 @ 2.41% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.73% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.53% ( -0)0-4 @ 0.98% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.35% Total : 35.81% |
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