SM
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Belgium | 8 | 18 | 20 |
| 2 | Austria | 8 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Sweden | 8 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Azerbaijan | 8 | -10 | 7 |
| 5 | Estonia | 8 | -20 | 1 |
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Belgium | 8 | 18 | 20 |
| 2 | Austria | 8 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Sweden | 8 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Azerbaijan | 8 | -10 | 7 |
| 5 | Estonia | 8 | -20 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Azerbaijan win with a probability of 51.96%. A win for Sweden had a probability of 24.93% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Azerbaijan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.12%) and 2-0 (8.22%). The likeliest Sweden win was 1-2 (6.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.77%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Sweden would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Azerbaijan | Draw | Sweden |
51.96% ( 1.13) | 23.12% ( -0.52) | 24.93% ( -0.6) |
| Both teams to score 57.88% ( 1.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.32% ( 1.8) | 42.67% ( -1.8) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.92% ( 1.77) | 65.08% ( -1.77) |
| Azerbaijan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.52% ( 1.08) | 16.47% ( -1.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.81% ( 1.91) | 46.19% ( -1.91) |
| Sweden Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.3% ( 0.48) | 30.7% ( -0.48) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.04% ( 0.56) | 66.96% ( -0.56) |
| Score Analysis |
| Azerbaijan | Draw | Sweden |
| 2-1 @ 9.71% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 9.12% ( -0.4)2-0 @ 8.22% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 5.84% ( 0.24)3-0 @ 4.94% ( 0.14)3-2 @ 3.45% ( 0.18)4-1 @ 2.63% ( 0.2)4-0 @ 2.23% ( 0.14)4-2 @ 1.55% ( 0.14)5-1 @ 0.95% ( 0.1)Other @ 3.31% Total : 51.96% | 1-1 @ 10.77% ( -0.32) 2-2 @ 5.73% ( 0.11)0-0 @ 5.06% ( -0.42)3-3 @ 1.36% ( 0.09)Other @ 0.2% Total : 23.12% | 1-2 @ 6.36% ( -0.11) 0-1 @ 5.97% ( -0.41)0-2 @ 3.53% ( -0.19)1-3 @ 2.5% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.26% ( 0.07)0-3 @ 1.39% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.92% Total : 24.93% |
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