SM
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Belgium | 8 | 18 | 20 |
| 2 | Austria | 8 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Sweden | 8 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Azerbaijan | 8 | -10 | 7 |
| 5 | Estonia | 8 | -20 | 1 |
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Slovenia | 10 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Denmark | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Finland | 10 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 10 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 6 | San Marino | 10 | -28 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Azerbaijan win with a probability of 59.23%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Kazakhstan had a probability of 17.31%.
The most likely scoreline for an Azerbaijan win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.77%) and 2-1 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.05%), while for a Kazakhstan win it was 0-1 (6.38%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Azerbaijan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Azerbaijan | Draw | Kazakhstan |
59.23% ( 3.23) | 23.46% ( -1.08) | 17.31% ( -2.14) |
| Both teams to score 45.77% ( -0.56) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.73% ( 1.21) | 53.27% ( -1.21) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.18% ( 1.02) | 74.82% ( -1.01) |
| Azerbaijan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.29% ( 1.66) | 17.7% ( -1.66) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.64% ( 2.8) | 48.36% ( -2.79) |
| Kazakhstan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.62% ( -1.83) | 44.38% ( 1.83) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.56% ( -1.53) | 80.44% ( 1.53) |
| Score Analysis |
| Azerbaijan | Draw | Kazakhstan |
| 1-0 @ 13.6% ( 0.08) 2-0 @ 11.77% ( 0.67)2-1 @ 9.57% ( 0.08)3-0 @ 6.8% ( 0.72)3-1 @ 5.52% ( 0.33)4-0 @ 2.94% ( 0.45)4-1 @ 2.39% ( 0.26)3-2 @ 2.24% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 1.02% ( 0.2)4-2 @ 0.97% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.4% Total : 59.22% | 1-1 @ 11.05% ( -0.5) 0-0 @ 7.86% ( -0.38)2-2 @ 3.89% ( -0.17)Other @ 0.66% Total : 23.46% | 0-1 @ 6.38% ( -0.66) 1-2 @ 4.49% ( -0.45)0-2 @ 2.59% ( -0.42)1-3 @ 1.22% ( -0.19)2-3 @ 1.05% ( -0.1)Other @ 1.58% Total : 17.31% |
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