Both needing a win to have any chance of finishing second, we are expecting a high-scoring affair between Latvia and Armenia this weekend.
Havakakan's confidence will be low following the defeat to Faroe Islands last time out, so we feel that the visitors will only manage a point in Riga.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Armenia win with a probability of 40.78%. A win for Latvia had a probability of 31.87% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Armenia win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.44%) and 0-2 (7.54%). The likeliest Latvia win was 1-0 (9.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Armenia would win this match.
1.13) 
-1.42) 
