SM
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Slovenia | 10 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Denmark | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Finland | 10 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 10 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 6 | San Marino | 10 | -28 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Armenia win with a probability of 40.56%. A win for Kazakhstan had a probability of 34.4% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for an Armenia win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.74%) and 2-0 (6.49%). The likeliest Kazakhstan win was 1-2 (7.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Armenia in this match.
| Result | ||
| Armenia | Draw | Kazakhstan |
40.56% ( 1.26) | 25.04% ( -0.44) | 34.4% ( -0.82) |
| Both teams to score 57.26% ( 1.35) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.84% ( 1.82) | 46.16% ( -1.82) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.55% ( 1.69) | 68.45% ( -1.69) |
| Armenia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.35% ( 1.44) | 22.65% ( -1.44) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.71% ( 2.09) | 56.29% ( -2.09) |
| Kazakhstan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.03% ( 0.38) | 25.97% ( -0.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.02% ( 0.51) | 60.98% ( -0.51) |
| Score Analysis |
| Armenia | Draw | Kazakhstan |
| 2-1 @ 8.74% ( 0.17) 1-0 @ 8.74% ( -0.3)2-0 @ 6.49% ( 0.06)3-1 @ 4.33% ( 0.26)3-0 @ 3.21% ( 0.16)3-2 @ 2.92% ( 0.2)4-1 @ 1.61% ( 0.16)4-0 @ 1.19% ( 0.11)4-2 @ 1.08% ( 0.12)Other @ 2.26% Total : 40.56% | 1-1 @ 11.77% ( -0.28) 2-2 @ 5.9% ( 0.18)0-0 @ 5.88% ( -0.47)3-3 @ 1.31% ( 0.1)Other @ 0.18% Total : 25.04% | 1-2 @ 7.94% ( -0.1) 0-1 @ 7.93% ( -0.53)0-2 @ 5.35% ( -0.3)1-3 @ 3.57% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.65% ( 0.11)0-3 @ 2.4% ( -0.11)1-4 @ 1.2% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.36% Total : 34.4% |
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