SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Armenia win with a probability of 64.58%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Latvia had a probability of 13.89%.
The most likely scoreline for an Armenia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.97%) and 2-1 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.11%), while for a Latvia win it was 0-1 (5.39%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Armenia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Armenia | Draw | Latvia |
64.58% ( 1.06) | 21.53% ( -0.43) | 13.89% ( -0.63) |
| Both teams to score 43.93% ( -0.28) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.35% ( 0.48) | 51.65% ( -0.47) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.57% ( 0.41) | 73.43% ( -0.41) |
| Armenia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.68% ( 0.51) | 15.32% ( -0.5) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.95% ( 0.94) | 44.05% ( -0.94) |
| Latvia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 51.88% ( -0.65) | 48.12% ( 0.66) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 16.68% ( -0.48) | 83.32% ( 0.48) |
| Score Analysis |
| Armenia | Draw | Latvia |
| 1-0 @ 13.82% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 12.97% ( 0.21)2-1 @ 9.49% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 8.11% ( 0.27)3-1 @ 5.94% ( 0.09)4-0 @ 3.81% ( 0.19)4-1 @ 2.78% ( 0.09)3-2 @ 2.17% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 1.43% ( 0.09)5-1 @ 1.05% ( 0.05)4-2 @ 1.02% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.99% Total : 64.57% | 1-1 @ 10.11% ( -0.2) 0-0 @ 7.37% ( -0.14)2-2 @ 3.47% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.58% Total : 21.53% | 0-1 @ 5.39% ( -0.21) 1-2 @ 3.7% ( -0.15)0-2 @ 1.97% ( -0.11)1-3 @ 0.9% ( -0.05)Other @ 1.92% Total : 13.89% |
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