SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | England | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 2 | Denmark | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Slovenia | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Serbia | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Slovenia | 10 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Denmark | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Finland | 10 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 10 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 6 | San Marino | 10 | -28 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Slovenia win with a probability of 47.78%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Kazakhstan had a probability of 26.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Slovenia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.17%) and 2-0 (8.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.39%), while for a Kazakhstan win it was 0-1 (8.38%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Slovenia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Slovenia | Draw | Kazakhstan |
47.78% ( 0.04) | 26.15% ( -0.02) | 26.07% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 49.36% ( 0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.58% ( 0.07) | 54.42% ( -0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.21% ( 0.05) | 75.79% ( -0.06) |
| Slovenia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.22% ( 0.04) | 22.78% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.52% ( 0.07) | 56.48% ( -0.07) |
| Kazakhstan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.92% ( 0.02) | 36.08% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.14% ( 0.02) | 72.86% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Slovenia | Draw | Kazakhstan |
| 1-0 @ 12.15% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 9.17% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 8.99% ( 0)3-1 @ 4.52% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 4.43% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.3% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.67% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.64% ( 0)Other @ 2.9% Total : 47.77% | 1-1 @ 12.39% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.22% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 4.67% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.86% Total : 26.14% | 0-1 @ 8.38% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 6.32% ( -0)0-2 @ 4.27% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.15% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.59% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.45% ( -0)Other @ 1.91% Total : 26.07% |
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