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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jagiellonia Bialystok win with a probability of 53.54%. A win for Lechia Gdansk had a probability of 23.76% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jagiellonia Bialystok win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.08%) and 2-0 (8.42%). The likeliest Lechia Gdansk win was 1-2 (6.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.55%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Jagiellonia Bialystok would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Jagiellonia Bialystok | Draw | Lechia Gdansk |
53.54% ( 0.06) | 22.7% ( -0.03) | 23.76% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 57.96% ( 0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.05% ( 0.09) | 41.95% ( -0.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.64% ( 0.09) | 64.35% ( -0.09) |
| Jagiellonia Bialystok Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.34% ( 0.05) | 15.66% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.3% ( 0.1) | 44.7% ( -0.1) |
| Lechia Gdansk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.73% ( 0.02) | 31.27% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.37% ( 0.02) | 67.62% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Jagiellonia Bialystok | Draw | Lechia Gdansk |
| 2-1 @ 9.79% ( 0) 1-0 @ 9.08% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 8.42% ( -0)3-1 @ 6.05% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 5.2% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.52% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.8% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.41% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.63% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.04% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.61% Total : 53.54% | 1-1 @ 10.55% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.69% ( 0)0-0 @ 4.9% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.36% ( 0)Other @ 0.2% Total : 22.7% | 1-2 @ 6.14% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 5.69% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 3.31% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.38% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.2% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.28% ( -0)Other @ 2.76% Total : 23.76% |
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