SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 69.62%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for Jagiellonia Bialystok had a probability of 13.17%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.55%) and 1-0 (8.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.85%), while for a Jagiellonia Bialystok win it was 1-2 (3.8%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | Jagiellonia Bialystok |
69.62% ( -0.02) | 17.21% ( 0) | 13.17% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 56.57% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.06% ( 0.02) | 33.94% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.2% ( 0.02) | 55.8% ( -0.02) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.23% ( 0) | 8.77% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 69.88% ( 0) | 30.12% |
| Jagiellonia Bialystok Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.02% ( 0.03) | 37.98% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.25% ( 0.03) | 74.75% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajax | Draw | Jagiellonia Bialystok |
| 2-0 @ 9.87% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.55% ( 0)1-0 @ 8.11% ( -0)3-0 @ 8% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 7.75% 4-0 @ 4.87% ( -0)4-1 @ 4.71% 3-2 @ 3.75% ( 0)5-0 @ 2.37% ( -0)5-1 @ 2.3% 4-2 @ 2.28% ( 0)5-2 @ 1.11% ( 0)6-0 @ 0.96% 6-1 @ 0.93% Other @ 3.06% Total : 69.62% | 1-1 @ 7.85% 2-2 @ 4.62% ( 0)0-0 @ 3.33% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.21% ( 0)Other @ 0.2% Total : 17.21% | 1-2 @ 3.8% ( 0) 0-1 @ 3.23% 0-2 @ 1.56% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.49% ( 0)1-3 @ 1.23% ( 0)Other @ 1.87% Total : 13.17% |
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