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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 47.14%. A win for Jagiellonia Bialystok had a probability of 31.69% and a draw had a probability of 21.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.84%) and 0-2 (5.11%). The likeliest Jagiellonia Bialystok win was 2-1 (6.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Jagiellonia Bialystok | Draw | Ajax |
| 31.69% | 21.16% ( 0) | 47.14% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 70.72% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 71.83% ( -0.03) | 28.17% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 51.04% ( -0.04) | 48.95% ( 0.04) |
| Jagiellonia Bialystok Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.1% ( -0.02) | 18.89% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.62% ( -0.03) | 50.38% ( 0.03) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.2% ( -0.02) | 12.8% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.89% ( -0.03) | 39.11% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Jagiellonia Bialystok | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 6.9% ( 0) 1-0 @ 4.03% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.94% ( -0)3-1 @ 3.83% ( -0)2-0 @ 3.36% ( 0)3-0 @ 1.87% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.64% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.6% ( -0)4-3 @ 1.13% ( -0)Other @ 3.4% Total : 31.69% | 1-1 @ 8.28% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 7.09% ( -0)3-3 @ 2.7% ( -0)0-0 @ 2.42% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.67% Total : 21.16% | 1-2 @ 8.52% ( 0) 1-3 @ 5.84% 0-2 @ 5.11% ( 0)0-1 @ 4.97% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 4.86% ( -0)0-3 @ 3.5% ( 0)1-4 @ 3% ( -0)2-4 @ 2.5% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.8% 3-4 @ 1.39% ( -0)1-5 @ 1.23% ( -0)2-5 @ 1.03% ( -0)Other @ 3.4% Total : 47.14% |
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