Following their Europa League defeat against Lyon, Porto will be looking to restore some pride on their return to the Primeira Liga. They face a Tondela side who have struggled for results in the history of this fixture and we are backing the Dregoes to come away with all three points unscathed. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 77.81%. A draw had a probability of 14.1% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 8.04%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.5%) and 1-0 (9.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.68%), while for a Tondela win it was 0-1 (2.54%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.

Result
Porto	Draw	Tondela
77.81%	14.15%	8.04%

Both teams to score 48.19%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

65.26%

34.73%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

43.3%

56.7%

Porto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

92.78%

7.22%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

73.8%

26.19%

Tondela Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

51.94%

48.06%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

16.72%

83.27%

Score Analysis

Porto 77.8%

Tondela 8.04%

Draw 14.15%

Porto	Draw	Tondela
2-0 @ 11.98% 3-0 @ 10.5% 1-0 @ 9.12% 2-1 @ 8.78% 3-1 @ 7.7% 4-0 @ 6.91% 4-1 @ 5.06% 5-0 @ 3.63% 3-2 @ 2.82% 5-1 @ 2.66% 4-2 @ 1.85% 6-0 @ 1.59% 6-1 @ 1.17% 5-2 @ 0.98% Other @ 3.06% Total : 77.8%	1-1 @ 6.68% 0-0 @ 3.47% 2-2 @ 3.22% Other @ 0.78% Total : 14.15%	0-1 @ 2.54% 1-2 @ 2.45% 0-2 @ 0.93% Other @ 2.12% Total : 8.04%