SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough Under-21s win with a probability of 65.27%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 17.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough Under-21s win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.71%) and 2-0 (7.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.25%), while for a Derby County Under-21s win it was 1-2 (4.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Middlesbrough Under-21s would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Middlesbrough Under-21s | Draw | Derby County Under-21s |
65.27% ( -0.06) | 17.66% ( 0.01) | 17.07% ( 0.05) |
| Both teams to score 65.45% ( 0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 72.6% ( 0.05) | 27.4% ( -0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 52.01% ( 0.07) | 47.99% ( -0.07) |
| Middlesbrough Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.01% ( 0) | 8% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 71.81% ( 0) | 28.2% ( -0) |
| Derby County Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.14% ( 0.09) | 28.86% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.27% ( 0.11) | 64.73% ( -0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Middlesbrough Under-21s | Draw | Derby County Under-21s |
| 2-1 @ 9.15% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 7.71% ( -0)2-0 @ 7.36% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 6.2% ( -0.02)1-0 @ 5.83% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 4.87% ( -0)3-2 @ 4.79% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 3.92% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 3.02% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 2.46% ( -0)5-0 @ 1.98% ( -0.01)5-2 @ 1.53% ( 0)4-3 @ 1.25% ( 0)6-1 @ 1.04% ( -0)Other @ 4.17% Total : 65.27% | 1-1 @ 7.25% ( -0) 2-2 @ 5.69% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 2.31% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.98% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.44% Total : 17.66% | 1-2 @ 4.5% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 2.87% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.36% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.86% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 1.78% ( 0)Other @ 3.7% Total : 17.07% |
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