Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa Under-21s win with a probability of 60.33%. A win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 21.03% and a draw had a probability of 18.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa Under-21s win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (7.28%) and 0-2 (6.25%). The likeliest Derby County Under-21s win was 2-1 (5.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.21%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Aston Villa Under-21s would win this match.
Result | ||
Derby County Under-21s | Draw | Aston Villa Under-21s |
21.03% ( -0) | 18.64% ( -0.01) | 60.33% ( 0.02) |
Both teams to score 69.35% ( 0.06) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
74.38% ( 0.07) | 25.62% ( -0.07) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
54.28% ( 0.09) | 45.72% ( -0.09) |
Derby County Under-21s Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.82% ( 0.04) | 24.18% ( -0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
41.5% ( 0.06) | 58.5% ( -0.06) |
Aston Villa Under-21s Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
91.46% ( 0.02) | 8.54% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
70.45% ( 0.06) | 29.55% ( -0.06) |
Score Analysis |
Derby County Under-21s | Draw | Aston Villa Under-21s |
2-1 @ 5.12% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.98% ( 0) 1-0 @ 2.93% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 2.42% 2-0 @ 2.08% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.06% ( 0) 3-0 @ 0.99% ( -0) Other @ 3.45% Total : 21.03% | 1-1 @ 7.21% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 6.3% ( 0) 3-3 @ 2.45% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 2.07% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.62% Total : 18.64% | 1-2 @ 8.87% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 7.28% ( 0) 0-2 @ 6.25% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 5.17% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 5.13% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 5.08% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 4.48% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 3.18% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 3.15% ( 0) 1-5 @ 2.2% ( 0) 2-5 @ 1.56% ( 0) 0-5 @ 1.55% ( 0) 3-4 @ 1.5% ( 0.01) 1-6 @ 0.9% ( 0) Other @ 4.03% Total : 60.33% |
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