Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 81.47%. A draw had a probability of 12.5% and a win for Burnley had a probability of 6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.93%) and 1-0 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.96%), while for a Burnley win it was 0-1 (2.19%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
