SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 46.52%. A win for Brentford had a probability of 27.88% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.23%) and 2-0 (8.29%). The likeliest Brentford win was 0-1 (8.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.17%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Newcastle United | Draw | Brentford |
46.52% ( 0.61) | 25.59% ( -0.13) | 27.88% ( -0.48) |
| Both teams to score 52.42% ( 0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.9% ( 0.24) | 51.09% ( -0.25) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.05% ( 0.21) | 72.95% ( -0.22) |
| Newcastle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.04% ( 0.37) | 21.95% ( -0.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.75% ( 0.57) | 55.24% ( -0.58) |
| Brentford Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.16% ( -0.25) | 32.83% ( 0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.6% ( -0.27) | 69.4% ( 0.26) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newcastle United | Draw | Brentford |
| 1-0 @ 10.92% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.23% ( 0.06)2-0 @ 8.29% ( 0.11)3-1 @ 4.66% ( 0.08)3-0 @ 4.19% ( 0.1)3-2 @ 2.6% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 1.77% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 1.59% ( 0.06)4-2 @ 0.98% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.29% Total : 46.51% | 1-1 @ 12.17% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 7.21% ( -0.07)2-2 @ 5.14% ( -0)3-3 @ 0.96% ( 0)Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.59% | 0-1 @ 8.03% ( -0.13) 1-2 @ 6.78% ( -0.08)0-2 @ 4.47% ( -0.1)1-3 @ 2.52% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 1.91% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.66% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.52% Total : 27.88% |
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