Off the back of victories over Gil Vicente and Santa Clara, Arouca will head into the weekend with sky-high confidence as they look to end their poor streak against the visitors. However, Braga possess the firepower to get the desired result this weekend and we are tipping them to edge out the hosts once again.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 49.29%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 24.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.4%) and 1-2 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.29%), while for an Arouca win it was 1-0 (8.18%). The actual scoreline of 0-6 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
0.11) 
-0.21) 
