Benfica have been near-impenetrable in recent weeks and will fancy their chances against an opposing side who have lost each of the last six meetings between the teams. While we expect the visitors to put up a good fight, we are backing AS Aguias to extend their dominance in this fixture and pick up a comfortable opening-day victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 73.88%. A draw had a probability of 16% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 10.11%.

The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.56%) and 1-0 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.55%), while for an Arouca win it was 0-1 (3.07%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.

Result
Benfica	Draw	Arouca
73.88% ( -0.07)	16.02% ( 0)	10.11% ( 0.07)

Both teams to score 50.22% (

0.28)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

63.16% (

0.22)

36.84% (

-0.22)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

40.99% (

0.24)

59.01% (

-0.23)

Benfica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

91.45% (

0.04)

8.55% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

70.43% (

0.09)

29.57% (

-0.09)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

54.91% (

0.28)

45.09% (

-0.28)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19% (

0.23)

81% (

-0.22)

Score Analysis

Benfica 73.87%

Arouca 10.11%

Draw 16.02%

Benfica	Draw	Arouca
2-0 @ 11.65% ( -0.08) 3-0 @ 9.56% ( -0.05) 1-0 @ 9.48% ( -0.08) 2-1 @ 9.29% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 7.61% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 5.88% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 4.68% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 3.03% ( 0.03) 5-0 @ 2.89% ( -0) 5-1 @ 2.3% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.86% ( 0.02) 6-0 @ 1.19% 6-1 @ 0.94% ( 0.01) 5-2 @ 0.92% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.6% Total : 73.87%	1-1 @ 7.55% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 3.86% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 3.7% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.91% Total : 16.02%	0-1 @ 3.07% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 3.01% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 1.22% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 0.98% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.83% Total : 10.11%