SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 14 | Vizela | 33 | -18 | 33 |
| 15 | Arouca | 33 | -22 | 31 |
| 16 | Moreirense | 33 | -17 | 29 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 9 | Boavista | 34 | -13 | 38 |
| 10 | Portimonense | 34 | -14 | 38 |
| 11 | Pacos de Ferreira | 34 | -15 | 38 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 47.97%. A win for Portimonense had a probability of 26.14% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.24%) and 2-0 (8.91%). The likeliest Portimonense win was 0-1 (8.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Arouca in this match.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Portimonense |
| 47.97% | 25.89% | 26.14% |
| Both teams to score 50.16% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.6% | 53.39% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.07% | 74.93% |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.73% | 22.27% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 44.28% | 55.71% |
| Portimonense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.53% | 35.47% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 27.77% | 72.23% |
| Score Analysis |
| Arouca | Draw | Portimonense |
| 1-0 @ 11.86% 2-1 @ 9.24% 2-0 @ 8.91% 3-1 @ 4.62% 3-0 @ 4.46% 3-2 @ 2.4% 4-1 @ 1.74% 4-0 @ 1.68% Other @ 3.07% Total : 47.97% | 1-1 @ 12.29% 0-0 @ 7.9% 2-2 @ 4.79% Other @ 0.91% Total : 25.89% | 0-1 @ 8.19% 1-2 @ 6.37% 0-2 @ 4.24% 1-3 @ 2.2% 2-3 @ 1.65% 0-3 @ 1.47% Other @ 2.01% Total : 26.14% |
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