Arouca have endured a horrid campaign this season and find themselves just one point above the drop zone with three games to play. However, we are tipping them to grind out a slender victory against a floundering Portimonense side who are yet to taste victory on the road this year. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 47.97%. A win for Portimonense had a probability of 26.14% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.24%) and 2-0 (8.91%). The likeliest Portimonense win was 0-1 (8.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Arouca in this match.

Result
Arouca	Draw	Portimonense
47.97%	25.89%	26.14%

Both teams to score 50.16%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.6%

53.39%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.07%

74.93%

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.73%

22.27%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.28%

55.71%

Portimonense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.53%

35.47%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.77%

72.23%

Score Analysis

Arouca 47.97%

Portimonense 26.14%

Draw 25.89%

Arouca	Draw	Portimonense
1-0 @ 11.86% 2-1 @ 9.24% 2-0 @ 8.91% 3-1 @ 4.62% 3-0 @ 4.46% 3-2 @ 2.4% 4-1 @ 1.74% 4-0 @ 1.68% Other @ 3.07% Total : 47.97%	1-1 @ 12.29% 0-0 @ 7.9% 2-2 @ 4.79% Other @ 0.91% Total : 25.89%	0-1 @ 8.19% 1-2 @ 6.37% 0-2 @ 4.24% 1-3 @ 2.2% 2-3 @ 1.65% 0-3 @ 1.47% Other @ 2.01% Total : 26.14%